Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSX:GOOS), the luxury outerwear company, has been a topic of interest for investors in 2025. With a recent price rebound on the Toronto Stock Exchange and an upcoming earnings report, the question remains: Is Canada Goose undervalued, or are earnings risks too high to ignore?
In this analysis, we’ll examine valuation, earnings trends, analyst expectations, and future growth forecasts, supported by financial data and charts.
Why Investors Are Watching Canada Goose in 2025
Canada Goose remains a leading name in the luxury apparel sector, and its stock movements often mirror broader consumer trends in premium retail. As economic conditions shift, investors are keen to understand whether the company’s direct-to-consumer strategy and global expansion can sustain long-term revenue growth despite short-term earnings pressure.
For individuals balancing equity investments with personal finance decisions, understanding market dynamics like this is crucial. If you are also planning big financial steps like refinancing your home loan or managing investment property returns, monitoring stocks such as Canada Goose can provide insights into consumer sentiment and economic health.
Stock Market Trends & Personal Financial Planning
Analyzing a company like Canada Goose isn’t just for active traders; it also matters to long-term investors building diversified portfolios. As GOOS trades near its industry P/E ratio, it highlights the importance of valuation discipline for anyone balancing assets, whether in stocks, bonds, or real estate.
If you are exploring financial strategies beyond equities, you can use our mortgage rate prediction tools to forecast future borrowing costs and plan your investments more effectively.
Current Financial Snapshot (As of March 31, 2025)
Canada Goose Holdings (TSX:GOOS) Financial Snapshot 2025
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | CA$1.34 Billion |
| Earnings | CA$94.8 Million |
| Free Cash Flow | CA$274.5 Million |
| Cash from Operations | CA$292.4 Million |
Source: Company Financials & Analyst Consensus
Revenue & Earnings Trend
The first chart illustrates Canada Goose’s revenue and earnings over time, with analyst forecasts into 2028.
Canada Goose Revenue & Earnings Forecast (2023–2028)
- Revenue has steadily grown, crossing CA$1.3B in FY2025.
- Earnings, while positive, show signs of plateauing, with forecasts predicting potential pressure in 2026–2028.
- Free cash flow surged in FY2025 but is expected to normalize in upcoming years.
Valuation: Is GOOS Undervalued?
Canada Goose currently trades at a P/E ratio of 18.38x, slightly below the industry average of 18.78x. This suggests the stock is fairly priced compared to its peers rather than significantly undervalued.
Key Takeaways:
- The valuation implies limited mispricing opportunities at the current level.
- Canada Goose’s high beta means increased volatility, offering potential buying opportunities during dips.
- The recent price rally has pushed shares closer to their 12-month highs, reducing the margin of safety for new investors.
Earnings Forecast: Decline Despite Revenue Growth
Zacks Equity Research expects Canada Goose to post a Q2 2025 loss of $0.62 per share, down 6.9% YoY, even though revenue is projected to grow 6.1% to $68.33 million.
Why the Decline?
- Rising operating expenses related to marketing and DTC expansion.
- Currency fluctuations impacting margins.
- Seasonal softness in the spring/summer quarter.
Earnings History & Stock Price Reaction
Canada Goose has beaten EPS estimates in the last 4 quarters, including a +43.75% beat last quarter. However, analyst sentiment has turned cautious, with EPS estimates revised 25% lower over the past month.
Canada Goose Stock Price vs EPS Estimates
| Quarter | Stock Price (CA$) | EPS Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 17 | 0.15 |
| Q2 2024 | 19 | 0.18 |
| Q3 2024 | 21 | 0.16 |
| Q4 2024 | 20 | 0.20 |
| Q1 2025 | 23 | 0.23 |
| Q2 2025 | 22 | -0.62 |
The stock price has reacted sharply to both beats and misses, reinforcing the importance of the July 31 earnings report.
Analyst Ratings & Sentiment
- Zacks Rank: #4 (Sell)
- Earnings ESP: 0% (No strong signal for a beat or miss)
- Consensus View: Neutral-to-Cautious due to near-term earnings risks despite stable revenue growth.
Investor Strategy: Hold, Buy, or Wait?
- If you’ve held through the recent rebound, consider whether the risk/reward aligns with your portfolio. The upcoming earnings report could be a key inflection point.
For Potential Buyers:
- While the valuation isn’t stretched, the downward EPS revisions suggest waiting for the earnings report may offer a better entry point, especially if a post-earnings dip occurs.
For Traders:
- Short-term volatility is likely around earnings. High beta provides opportunities for swing trades, but risk management is crucial.
Canada Goose Holdings (TSX:GOOS) Strengths and Weaknesses 2025
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| Iconic luxury brand recognition | Seasonal revenue fluctuations |
| Strong DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) | High operating expenses |
| Global expansion potential | Dependence on premium pricing |
Frequently Asked Question (FAQs)
1. Is Canada Goose stock undervalued in 2025?
Currently, GOOS trades near the industry average P/E, making it fairly valued rather than deeply discounted. The lack of a significant valuation gap limits the “undervalued” thesis at this time.
2. When is Canada Goose reporting earnings?
The company is expected to report on July 31, 2025.
3. Why are analysts expecting a decline in earnings despite higher revenue?
The projected decline is due to higher marketing costs, DTC expansion investments, and seasonal margin pressure in the June quarter.
4. Does Canada Goose pay a dividend?
No, Canada Goose does not currently pay a dividend, as it reinvests earnings into brand growth and global expansion.
Conclusion: Is GOOS a Buy Now?
Canada Goose presents a mixed picture in mid-2025. On one hand, the company maintains strong brand equity, steady revenue growth, and positive free cash flow. On the other hand, downward earnings revisions, a potential quarterly loss, and fair valuation levels create a cautious setup for investors.
Bottom line:
- Long-term investors may see opportunity if the brand executes on its expansion strategy and stabilizes margins.
- Short-term traders should watch the July 31 earnings report closely, as the stock’s high volatility often creates rapid moves.
- New buyers may benefit from waiting until after the earnings report to evaluate a better entry point.
